Section 2: Deterrence — The Doctrine of “Limited Strikes” and the High-Stakes Game

By Maleksabet Ebrahimi

Despite the intensity of missile and drone attacks, along with the downing of multiple aircraft on both sides, India and Pakistan are still operating below the threshold of military action that could trigger a full-scale war or the deployment of nuclear weapons.

Since 2019, India has revised its defence strategy by adopting a policy of “limited, high-precision strikes,” and once again, this time its assault on Muzaffarabad — located in Pakistan-administered Kashmir — was calculated, targeted, and symbolically executed.

Pakistan, on its part, by claiming to have downed Indian fighter jets and stressing the idea of a “symmetrical response,” is attempting to demonstrate strength and maintain the balance of mutual deterrence.

Analysis:

Both parties appear to be engaged in a multidimensional and complex scenario of “controlled warfare.” However, the risk of miscalculation, accidental escalation, or uncontainable provocation — whether through human error or the actions of non-state actors like Lashkar-e-Taiba, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and radical Hindu factions — remains dangerously high.

Malek Sabet Ebrahimi

May 7, 2025

Toronto